Over the next six weeks, our writers will analyze the off-season chess game that took place and give our two cents on how we believe things will shape up this coming season. These rankings are based upon how teams would fare at the beginning of the season. My sincerest apologies for any faithful followers who have teams that are presently operating in the ‘potential’ and ‘upside’ stages of building for the future. Unfortunately, these rankings will be based on the here and now, but nonetheless, the analysis will be sound and effectively whet the appetite for all of those famished NBA fans out there.

Last Season’s Record: Although the Rockets digressed last season as far as their record goes, they were a much better team.  Rockets GM Daryl Morey made some terrific moves in acquiring Ron Artest, trading Rafer Alston for Kyle Lowry and giving significant minutes to Aaron Brooks.  The Rockets were able to push to a game seven against the eventual NBA Champion Los Angeles Lakers without the services of Yao Ming for the final four games of the series.

Arrivals: Trevor Ariza, Chase Budinger, David Andersen, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Sergio Llull, Jermaine Taylor

Departures: Ron Artest, Von Wafer, Dikembe Mutombo, (Yao Ming)

Biggest Question: Who is going to step up and be an adequate post presence for the Rockets?

Off-Season Changes: The Rockets had a difficult summer to say the least.  The organization was already aware that they would be without the services of Tracy McGrady for the beginning portion of the season.  To compound this blow, the team found out that Yao Ming would miss the entire season with the injury he suffered in the Lakers series that would later require surgery.

Strike one and two had already been thrown when Ron Artest decided he was going to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers in July (strike three).  Even still, the Rockets were able to get promising SF Trevor Ariza out of the situation.  Furthermore, because of Yao’s injury, they Rockets were able to obtain a Disabled Players Exception in the amount of the full MLE.  For simplicity’s sake, essentially this gave the Rockets an additional MLE to offer to free agents.

It’s foreseeable that the Rockets will be forced to go small for much of the time, but Luis Scola is a legitimate post threat and second-year big man Joey Dorsey out of Memphis put up some beastly performances in summer league.  Honestly, the chances of Summer League performances translating to the big stage are about the same as a Memphis Tiger’s SAT scores matching their actual intellect but nonetheless, it is something to look at and be hopeful about.  All kidding aside, Joey has great potential and hopefully he will be able to shoulder some of the burden left behind with Yao’s absence and instill a greater sense of hope into the minds of Rockets fans.

There is one final saving grace to this off-season: if the Rockets could manage to get Stephen Jackson from the Warriors, this summer would look a lot less gloomy.  Jackson was recently quoted as to saying he would like to either play for Cleveland or one of the Texas teams.  The Rockets seem like the most natural fit for him in terms of what they have to offer him.  They can provide him with a significantly larger role on the team in addition to allowing him to facilitate the offense.  He is one of those players who is much more effective when the ball is in his hands and having a shoot-first point guard like Aaron Brooks would complement his skill-set quite nicely.  If Morey was able to pull-off a Stephen Jackson for expirings deal, the Rockets could very well be in the mix for that final playoff slot.  For now we must assume this will not happen and for that reason, in addition to the chemistry that will need to be re-established with the departure of Yao and Artest, the Rockets sit towards the bottom portion of the league to start the season.

X-Factor:  Luis Scola

Luis Scola is a heck of a second fiddle but can he take the lead with Yao out for the season?  Scola’s role increased dramatically last season and he matured into an extremely valuable asset to the Rockets organization.  His development was a big part of the success that the Rockets celebrated without the services of Yao, T-Mac, and Artest at different parts of last season.  Scola will be called upon to help fill some of the void left by Yao Ming.  Additionally, he will be asked to play more minutes in general (more specifically at the center position).  Scola was able to maintain his averages and improve a little bit on the rebounding when Yao went down for the final four games of the Lakers series but will he be able to elevate his game further in the long-term?  Only time will tell, but for now, there’s no question that Scola remains the key cog in pushing this team toward competitive basketball or digressing to lottery status.

Money Moves or Championship Moves?

The Rockets are in a unique position with the uncertainty surrounding Yao’s foot injury.  While Yao could very well come back and be the same player he was before, the more realistic scenario would be to expect that he will be less of a force upon returning (if he returns at all).  We can sit here all day and play glass-half-full or –half-empty games but that does us no good at this point and I assure you Daryl Morey is mindful of such a senseless waste of time.  The time is now and Morey understands that he needs to continue to be opportunistic moving forward.  With McGrady’s huge expiring sitting in his pocket, it’s safe to assume that Morey will not hesitate to pull the trigger if he can get the right deal on the table to bring back a nice piece or two to the organization.

At the end of the day, the Rockets are clearly going to be headed in one direction or the other and it is my belief that that direction will be directly correlated with the status and progress of Yao Ming.  Obviously other variables must be taken into consideration such as what players become available via trade and what offers are put on the table for Tracy McGrady; but all else equal, the single most important factor will be Yao’s progress.

The Rockets could trade expiring contracts for Stephen Jackson, trade away T-Mac’s contract for two solid rotation players.  They could then follow up by splitting their MLE (which is still intact) to sign a couple of veterans that are released later in the season when non-contending teams buy them out.  Just as easily, the Rockets could get bad news about Yao, let T-Mac expire and walk, buyout a retiring Yao Ming and start a massive rebuilding process.  There are so many question marks right now and once there is greater clarity with Yao’s future, expect for the dominoes to begin to fall as they may and for the direction of this franchise to become much more defined.

Three Predictions:

1. Tracy McGrady has played his last game as a Houston Rocket
2. The Rockets will miss the playoffs this season
3. Luis Scola will win the Most Improved Player of the Year Award at season’s end

Related posts:

1. Countdown from 30: #25 Houston Rockets
2. Houston’s Budinger Out 2-3 Weeks
3. Rockets and Knicks closer to T-Mac deal