State of the Hornets Address
The Hornets are in trouble. So much so that Chris Paul even believes he could end up being traded (Source). His contract jumped considerably from $4.6 million last year to $13.8 million for the upcoming year. If this makes you want to cry for the next couple of days then let me calm your nerves over the next couple of points. Jeff Bowen will trade every other player on the roster before he trades Chris Paul. Why? Because CP3’s combination of age, attitude, and statistics bring hope to the franchise, but mainly he earns owner George Shinn a LOT more money than the $13.8 million Shinn has to pay him. They know what they have in Paul and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. If anything of value moves it will be a bad contract (probably Mo-Pete and/or Posey) packaged with a first round draft pick (our second rounders belong to Miami for a couple of years) and a young player that isn’t going to be anything such as Julian Wright in return for cap relief. Fear not, there is a solution and its right here on hoopangle.com.
There is a common rule between winning franchises in regards to trades. Never, ever sell low on players. Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic both have Early Termination Options in their contracts and could both become free agents next year (unlikely unless Byron Scott and Jeff Bowen read this article and decide to take my advice…very real possibility. Get the word out). While neither Peja nor Chandler’s value is soaring right now, they very well could. So except for a Gasol to L.A. type trade putting the Hornets miraculously on top of the Western Conference, Chandler nor Peja should be dealt (Bower said the team is not shopping Chandler…it doesn’t mean they weren’t, but it does mean there is reason to believe that Chandler’s contract is more impo
rtant than it seems to the naked eye). What needs to happen next is Chandler and Peja need to be averaging 37-38 minutes per game and CP3 needs to be looking to these guys first. In today’s economy, maximizing player value often means minimizing contract length. Peja will probably decide not to opt out of his contract next offseason, but Scott and Bowen know that if Peja’s trade value needs to increase, so do his statistics (that’s another article in itself though). If Chandler, however, has good enough statistics, he will undoubtedly become a free agent after next season. He should be back from ankle surgery and ready to go by training camp and I believe he’s going to bounce back to his 2007-2008 season form of 11.8 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. If David Lee can average 15.9 points and 11.7 rebounds and hold out for $10 million per year without any options except a sign and trade then Chandler will be like a kid in a candy shop with teams begging him to sign a long term, big time contract with them. Chandler has so many reasons to opt out of his contract next offseason. He’s 26 years old which is still young but it’s pushing it. He will be looking for a long-term contract while still being considered a young player, and there will be suitors aplenty in 2010. He knows that roughly one third of the league will have enough cap room to sign a player to a maximum contract. The problem for these teams and the blessing for Tyson is that there are only about 5 or 6 players worth a max deal in the 2010 offseason. There is much reason to believe that if the basketball and the Hornets’ minutes are distributed correctly, two Hornets players will be worth a lot in return should the team choose to trade them.
Chandler’s potentially expiring contract is worth a whole lot more than some hurting teams (including the Hornets) want to let on. Look at division rival Dallas. They just traded Jerry Stackhouse’s expiring contract (remember him? He played in 10 games last year for the Mavericks…that’s it) and a minor asset in Antoine Wright for Shawn Marion, a former All-Star that still has a lot left in the tank. Stackhouse’s contract was more valuable now because it wasn’t completely guaranteed, so as each day passes leading up to the February trade deadline, Chandler’s contract becomes increasingly appealing to teams looking to save money or go after a superstar in the famed 2010 free agent class. This likely scenario is pending a very realistic bounce back in statistics, especially during a potential contract year and with recently weakened division opponent Houston losing its center, Yao Ming, for the season. The value of these players will only go up. The trade deadline could be an opportunity for the Hornets to get a combination of Rip Hamilton and Jason Maxiell or Gerald Wallace and Desagana Diop for Chandler and his contract . Detroit is hurting some and Charlotte is definitely strapped for cash. Would either of these teams cash in for a worse team in order to take some of the strain off of their bank accounts? In a world of Kwame Brown for Pau Gasol trades, anything is possible.
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[...] Shinn is quoted as saying he won’t just trade players to save money. “That’s how you lose fans” he said. There will be no dumping of Chandler or Stojakovic’s contracts and thank goodness for that. A team that’s willing to take Stojakovic’s contract would expect much more talent in return than Bowen or Shinn would allow (such as David West). Thus the reason the Hornets organization has publicly nixed trade rumors involving dumping huge contracts. This is analyzed more in depth in HoopAngle’s “State of the Hornets Address”. [...]